Debunking the Waco FLIR

(c) 2001 Ian Williams Goddard

The 51-day standoff in Waco, Texas between members of the Branch Davidian sect and federal agents ended tragically when the Mount Carmel Center burned to the ground, leaving over 70 of its inhabitants dead. Before and during the fire an aircraft circled overhead with a heat detecting FLIR (forward-looking infrared) video camera. The documentaries Waco: the Rules of Engagement [1] and Waco: A New Revelation [2] produced by Michael McNulty popularized the claim that the FLIR recorded gunshots being fired into Mt Carmel before and during the fire.

What is the evidence of gunfire on the Waco FLIR video? Bright flashes that appear on the ground and on the roof of Mt Carmel. However, when the Waco FLIR was run through the VIPER, a computer program that detects gunshots on FLIR, [3,4] no gunshots were found because the flashes are not like gunshots. [5] Additionally, expert analyses have shown that Waco flashes are thermal reflections on visible reflective debris. [6-8] These scientific analyses have not deterred proponents who continue to promote the claim that the flashes are gunfire.

The clip from the Waco FLIR on the left shows a flash that appears on the roof of Mt Carmel seen from an aircraft circling above. Consistent with the flash being a reflection of the hot sun, visible-light photos show a piece of glass in the same location as the flash. [9] Yet Waco FLIR gunshot proponents claim the flash is a gunshot. What do you think?

FORENSIC REALITY vs MYTH

Michael McNulty's documentaries claim that flashes appearing on the Waco FLIR as the fire spreads are government agents shooting at Davidians as they tried to escape through the rear dinning-room exit. His first documentary states: "Most of the remaining Davidians were concentrated here in the kitchen dinning room area, it was their only way out except for one thing, two men outside were firing machine guns at them." The documentary calls this "the machine-gunning of the Davidians trapped in the burning kitchen dinning room." [1]

McNulty's second documentary cites documentation apparently confirming that bodies were found near the dinning-room exit. The documentary states that machine guns were "being fired into the back of the dinning room" and that "according to the Justice Department report, at least fifteen people were found shot to death at this location." [2] Bullet-riddled bodies near the rear exit would seem to support McNulty's claim. However, consulting the cited documentation source, the Justice Department report, reveals that in reality zero bodies are listed as being found in the dinning room area. [10]

The following illustration is based on a map in the Treasury Department report that shows the locations of recovered bodies in Mt Carmel. [11] The location where the series of flashes appear during the fire is circled. Most shot bodies were found in the concrete room shown below, which would shield those in it and in front of it from any gunshots coming from the flash location. The few shot bodies in a line of fire from the flash location were all shot in the head. [12] It's unlikely that a gunman firing blindly into a building would hit all his victims in the head. The easier explanation is that the shot bodies were suicides or shot by others inside Mt Carmel.

The series of flashes that appear in the circled location above were caused by thermal reflections of the fire as it engulfed the floors above the concrete room. The flashes appear on a visible piece of debris attached to a fallen wall panel (the debris may be thermally reflective Mylar-film insulation). Gale-force winds cause the piece of debris to rapidly flap, which causes rapid flashing that produces an illusion of machine-gun fire. [13]

The absence of bodies near the rear exit debunks two key propositions of the gunshot claim: (1) that Davidians were machine-gunned as they tried to escape the fire through the rear exit and (2) that the official report says fifteen shot bodies were found near the rear exit.

PHYSICAL REALITY vs MYTH

After the Justice Department's fire investigator James Quintiere opined that the Waco flashes are solar reflections on debris, [14] McNulty's documentaries [1,2] claimed that FLIR cannot detect solar reflections. However, FLIR tests conducted by Vector Data [8] and Klasen and Madsen [6] proved that specular solar reflections produced bright white flashes in the same region of the electromagnetic spectrum the Waco FLIR detects. Furthermore, the FLIR image on the left from McNulty's second documentary [2] shows a helicopter during the US invasion of Somalia, which just happens to have a bright solar reflection on glass panels of its windshield. [15]

All the Waco flashes are clear examples of solar reflections (except for some that are thermal reflections of the fire [13] and others that reflect a tank's hot exhaust panel [16] ). One example: the first two images below are from the Waco FLIR. The second shows a flash that appears in a window at 12:08:31 pm. [17] The third image, a visible-light photo, shows the same window close-up, which is at the end of the collapsed gym catwalk.

McNulty's videos claim that this flash is an FBI bomb exploding inside Mt Carmel seen through a window. Yet the third image shows that the window was flat on the ground. The next graphic from the Klasen- Madsen report [6] shows that at 12:08:31 the aircraft (red box) was in the exact position necessary to intersect a beam of reflected solar energy (red arrow) coming from a specular solar reflection on the fallen window, which the moving FLIR sensor would record as a flash.

BALLISTIC REALITY vs MYTH

The Justice Department appointed an Office of Special Council (OSC) headed by John Danforth to examine the questions raised by McNulty's documentaries. The OSC retained Vector Data Systems to analyze the Waco FLIR and conduct tests in order to gather empirical data about solar reflections and gunshots on FLIR. Vector Data's results showed that gun-muzzle flashes appeared on FLIR video for no longer than 1 video frame (1/30 second). Yet, like the Waco flashes, solar reflections on debris produced bright flashes that appeared for multiple video frames recorded by a FLIR on an aircraft circling overhead, as was the case in Waco. [8]

All FLIR tests conducted by (a) Vector Data, (b) a lawyer for the Davidians, and (c) McNulty have confirmed what the scientific literature shows: the natural duration of gun-muzzle flashes will not exceed the duration of 1 video frame. These tests used a wide range of firearms, including low and high caliber automatic guns. The reason for the 1-frame limit is simple: the physical event of a muzzle flash lasts roughly 2 milliseconds -- fifteen times shorter than 1 video frame. [18] Ergo: the problem for the Waco FLIR gunshot claim is that gunshots appear on FLIR for only 1 video frame, however, like solar reflections the Waco flashes appear for an average duration of 7 video frames. [19] For the same reason that the statement "7 = 1" is false, the statement "The Waco FLIR flashes (7) are like (=) gunshots (1)" is false.

To the naked eye, many of the Waco FLIR flashes look like what one would assume gunshots would look like. Viewers readily interpret this assumed similarity as prima facie evidence of gunfire. However, when the gunshot claim is subjected to the objectives rules of the scientific method it fails for the same reason it fails when subjected to the mathematical rules in the algorithm of the VIPER gunshot-detection program [3-5] -- it fails because the Waco flashes are actually not like gun-muzzle flashes. That, plus the facts that the objects upon which flashes occur can be seen and no shooters are ever seen at or moving to or from the flash locations, is why the Justice Department's Office of Special Council concluded that the flashes recorded on the Waco FLIR are not gunshots.

ANOTHER CLAIM BITES THE DUST

McNulty's latest production, The FLIR Project, [22] introduces a new scenario. While his tests confirmed that muzzle flashes have a natural duration no longer than 1 video frame, McNulty discovered that the thermal signature of a muzzle flash could be sustained for up to 5 video frames if the gun is fired into a thick cloud of dust. The flash duration was extended because dust particles lingering in a muzzle-flash zone were heated by the flash and dissipated their heat over 5 video frames, almost as long as the 7-frame average of Waco flashes.

However, just as the Waco flashes do not resemble real gunshots, clouds of stagnant dust do not resemble the environment around Mt Carmel where the flashes were recorded. The cloud of dust into which guns were fired in McNulty's test was so thick it obscured visibility by 100%. Yet video and photos clearly show that the air around Mt Carmel was dust-free. The photo on the left shows the rear of Mt Carmel where many reflections on debris were recorded by the FLIR. As we can see, there are no clouds of dust. Not even the tank penetrating the gym is kicking up a cloud of dust.

Even if there were clouds of dust around Mt Carmel the dust scenario fails. Heated particles of dust in McNulty's test lingered in one fixed location for 5 video frames because there was no wind. However, there were continuous winds of 28 to 46 mph blowing across Mt Carmel when the Waco flashes were recorded. [23] A dust particle traveling 30 mph will move 1.5 feet during the duration of 1 video frame (1/30 sec). [24] Therefore, a cloud of heated dust would have traveled 10.5 feet during the 7 video frames of the average Waco flash. However, all the Waco flashes stay in one fixed location (on debris) throughout their appearance. So the dust scenario fails even if clouds of dust were around Mt Carmel.

CONCLUSION

The Waco FLIR gunshot claim purports that federal agents machine gunned men, women, and children as they tried to escape the Waco fire. In other words, the United States government is guilty of the systematic mass murder of its own citizens -- a crime against humanity. However, as the facts above demonstrate, the alleged evidentiary basis for this most serious charge -- that the official report lists fifteen bodies shot to death near the rear exit -- is completely false. And the flashes recorded on FLIR that are said to be the gunshots killing those allegedly trying to escape do not actually resemble real gunshots. Instead, the long durations of the flashes resemble thermal reflections. Furthermore, the flashes appear on detectable pieces of reflective debris. The entire Waco FLIR gunshot/mass murder claim is a confabulated mirage built upon falsity and bad analysis.

Prior to the acquisition of empirical data about gun-muzzle flashes and thermal reflections on FLIR, and prior to detailed analyses of the contents of the Waco FLIR, it was a reasonable concern that the flashes might be gunshots directed at Mt Carmel. However, the empirical data and analyses cited in this report leave no room for doubt that the Waco FLIR flashes are thermal reflections on debris, not gunshots. Yet the gunshot claim continues to proliferate due to a concerted effort to sell videos on the topic. Unfortunately the technical nature of the subject leaves most at a loss to see the Waco FLIR gunshot claim for the hallucination that it is. Hopefully this report will serve as a beacon of reason in a sea of misinformation.